New Contest: Pick one big tipping point
You Decide: Which of 20 triggers will end
'aging bull'
by Paul B. Farrell
Date: July 30, 2007
...If anything can go wrong, it will. The future's unpredictable. Best-laid plans can screw up. The law baffles humans, but it works...
The past two years we asked readers for help identifying the triggers. Why? We do this for one crucial reason: Today the brain of the American investor (as well as Wall Street power-players and corporate CEOs) has become so narrow, capable of only thinking short-term, that occasionally we all need to step back and look at the bigger picture instead of focusing myopically on the two-minute tape, tomorrow's opening, quarterly earnings or year-end bonuses.
So here's the new contest: Pick the No. 1 tipping point that'll push us over the edge, into a recession and bear market...
1. War/military defense budget busting
The tab on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars is now over $600 billion, with long-term estimates exceeding $2 trillion...
2. Real estate bubble raging
...The Economist says global housing is "the biggest bubble in history," fueling stock market speculation.
3. Foreign trade imbalance, trillions new debt
...Foreigners now own over $2.5 trillion of America.
4. China's economy overheating
...the Beijing bubble could pop long before the Summer Olympics.
5. Private-equity credit imploding
Moody's downgrades their debt. Credit crunch. U.S. economy hit...
6. 'Homeland Insecurity' failures
Borders leaking like sieves. Ports and chemical plants unprotected...
7. Hedge funds hurting retirement plans
Assets doubled since 2000 to over $1.3 trillion as pension funds, discouraged by low stock market returns, take bigger risks, further endangering your retirement.
8. Oil rocketing toward $100 a barrel...
9. Weak U.S. dollar keeps sinking
Foreign nations are diversifying reserves away from an ever-weakening dollar, further damaging America's global credit rating.
10. Federal budget deficits
GAO head warns America's headed for "bankruptcy."...
11. Social Security entitlements
Economists call it the "coming generational storm," estimating massive 44% cuts in benefits or 44% increases in taxes...
12. Medicare's massive deficits
...Going broke faster than Social Security.
13. Health-care-insurance deficit...
14. Climate change fuels global wars
...The Pentagon's own research says "climate change" is the "mother of all national security issues," creating geopolitical conditions triggering wars worldwide.
15. Personal savings shortfall...
16. Consumer debt surging
...Consumer debt exceeds $2 trillion...
17. Corporate pension defaults...
18. Local government pension deficits
Over $400 billion of entitlements will exhaust local taxpayer resources...
19. International credibility deficit...
20. Washington politics in endless gridlock...
The above information has been redacted from the article as it originally appeared on MarketWatch.com on July 30, 2007..
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